Discussion of Low-Carbon Development Pathways in Shanghai urban-rural development area

The urban-rural development area, as one of China's key sectors, plays a crucial role in achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. As a mega-city, Shanghai faces even more severe challenges in energy conservation and carbon reduction in the construction field. According to relevant statistical data, since the 13th Five-Year Plan, the scale of construction and carbon emissions during the operation phase of buildings in Shanghai have shown a continuous growth trend, with the total carbon emissions from residential buildings growing faster than those from public buildings, while the carbon emissions per unit area of public buildings are gradually decreasing. With the gradual replacement of oil and other energy sources by electricity and natural gas, the proportion of direct carbon emissions of buildings in Shanghai is continuously declining. To better analyze the main influencing factors and trends of carbon emissions of buildings in Shanghai, a new equation based on the transformation of the Kaya identity is proposed. Different scenarios, including a baseline scenario, an energy-saving scenario, and an enhanced carbon reduction scenario, are set up to predict the effects of various measures. The results ultimately indicate that improving building energy efficiency, optimizing the energy structure of buildings, and low-carbon energy transition are conducive to achieving the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the construction sector. Therefore, this paper explores the development path of Shanghai urban-rural development area from these aspects.