The Influencing Factors and Future Development of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions in Urban Households: A Review of China’s Experience

Household energy consumption is one of the major drivers of carbon emissions, and an in-depth analysis of its influencing factors, along with forecasting carbon emission trajectories, is crucial for achieving China’s carbon emission targets. This study reviews the research progress on urban household energy-related carbon emissions (HErC) in China since 2000, with a focus on the latest developments in influencing factors. The study categorizes these factors into five major groups: household characteristics, economic attributes, energy consumption features, awareness and norms, and policies and interventions. The findings indicate that income levels, energy efficiency, and household size are the key determinants of urban HErC of China and are commonly used as core assumptions in scenario-based forecasts of emission trends. In addition, although environmental awareness and government services have increasingly garnered attention, their specific effects require further investigation due to the challenges in quantification. A synthesis of existing forecasting studies suggests that, without the implementation of effective measures, HErC will continue to rise, and the peak emission period will be delayed. Enhancing building and energy efficiency, promoting low-carbon consumption and clean energy applications, and implementing multidimensional coordinated policies are considered the most effective pathways for emission reduction.