Environmental and Resource Impacts from an Aggressive Regionalized Carbon Peak Policy

When and how to achieve a carbon peak is a concern for provincial regions within China under the context of achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. This study investigates the overall carbon peak environmental and resource impacts under current national targets and Shanghai's latest more aggressive carbon peak policy by using a dynamic multiple-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for the year 2030. Results show that (1) the national carbon peak and the more aggressive regional policy in Shanghai will result in energy consumption and carbon emissions decreases when compared to the business-as-usual scenario in most provinces; (2) although some cobenefits in water use reduction may occur in most provinces under the carbon policy scenarios, the results show positive and negative variations; (3) provincial level environmental and resources in transport, electricity, metal smelting and pressing, and agricultural production sectors are most influenced by Shanghai's aggressive carbon peak policy; and (4) the outsourced environmental and resource impacts from Shanghai to other provinces are very significant under Shanghai's aggressive carbon policy. These relevant results provide insights to facilitate broader governance decision-making for environmental resource nexuses while seeking an improved understanding of global sustainable development and climate governance.