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Action, perception and free-energy (Thursday May 29th) Value-learning and perceptual learning have been an important focus over the past decade, attracting the concerted attention of experimental psychologists, neurobiologists and the machine learning community. Despite some formal connections; e.g., the role of prediction error in optimising some function of sensory states, both fields have developed their own rhetoric and postulates. In work, we show that perceptual learning is, literally,...
In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of evoked hemodynamic responses and their spatiotemporal dynamics as measured with fast fMRI. This analysis uses standard multivariate statistics (MANCOVA) and the general linear model to make inferences about effects of interest and canonical variates analysis (CVA) to describe the important features of these effects. We have used these techniques to characterize the form of hemodynamic transients that are evoked during a cognitive or sensorimotor task. In particular we do not assume that the neural or hemodynamic response reaches some "steady state" but acknowledge that these physiological changes could show profound task-dependent adaptation and time-dependent changes during the task. To address this issue we have modeled hemodynamic responses using appropriate temporal basis functions and estimated their exact form within the general linear model using MANCOVA. We do not propose that this analysis is a particularly powerful way to make inferences about functional specialization (or more generally functional anatomy) because it only provides statistical inferences about the distributed (whole brain) responses evoked by different conditions. However, its application to characterizing the temporal aspects of evoked hemodynamic responses reveals some compelling and somewhat unexpected perspectives on transient but stereotyped responses to changes in cognitive or sensorimotor processing. The most remarkable observation is that these responses can be biphasic and show profound differences in their form depending on the extant task or condition. Furthermore these differences can be seen in the absence of changes in mean signal.
We show that new methods for measuring effective connectivity allow us to characterise the interactions between brain regions that underlie the complex interactions among different processing stages of functional architectures. q 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
This paper considers state-dependent dynamics that mediate perception in the brain. In particular, it considers the formal basis of self-organized instabilities that enable perceptual transitions during Bayes-optimal perception. The basic phenomena we consider are perceptual transitions that lead to conscious ignition (Dehaene and Changeux, 2011) and how they depend on dynamical instabilities that underlie chaotic itinerancy (Breakspear, 2001; Tsuda, 2001) and self-organized criticality (Beggs and Plenz, 2003; Plenz and Thiagarajan, 2007; Shew et al., 2011). Our approach is based on a dynamical formulation of perception as approximate Bayesian inference, in terms of variational free energy minimization. This formulation suggests that perception has an inherent tendency to induce dynamical instabilities (critical slowing) that enable the brain to respond sensitively to sensory perturbations. We briefly review the dynamics of perception, in terms of generalized Bayesian filtering and free energy minimization, present a formal conjecture about self-organized instability and then test this conjecture, using neuronal (numerical) simulations of perceptual categorization.
Being confident in whether a stimulus is present or absent (a detection judgment) is qualitatively distinct from being confident in the identity of that stimulus (a discrimination judgment). In particular, in detection, evidence can only be available for the presence, not the absence, of a target object. This asymmetry suggests that higher-order cognitive and neural processes may be required for confidence in detection, and more specifically, in judgments about absence. In a within-subject, pre-registered and performance-matched fMRI design, we observed quadratic confidence effects in frontopolar cortex for detection but not discrimination. Furthermore, in the right temporoparietal junction, confidence effects were enhanced for judgments of target absence compared to judgments of target presence. We interpret these findings as reflecting qualitative differences between a neural basis for metacognitive evaluation of detection and discrimination, potentially in line with counterfactual or higher-order models of confidence formation in detection.
Background Predicting the future UK COVID-19 epidemic provides a baseline of a vaccine-only mitigation policy from which to judge the effects of additional public health interventions. A previous 12-month prediction of the size of the epidemic to October 2022 underestimated its sequelae by a fifth. This analysis seeks to explain the reasons for the underestimation before offering new long-term predictions. Methods A Dynamic Causal Model was used to identify changes in COVID-19 transmissibility and the public's behavioral response in the 12-months to October 2022. The model was then used to predict the future trends in infections, long-COVID, hospital admissions and deaths over 12-months to October 2023. Findings The model estimated that the secondary attack rate increased from 0.4 to 0.5, the latent period shortened from 2.7 to 2.6 and the incubation period shortened from 2.0 to 1.95 days between October 2021 and October 2022. During this time the model also estimated that antibody immunity waned from 177 to 160 days and T-cell immunity from 205 to 180 days. This increase in transmissibility was associated with a reduction in pathogenicity with the proportion of infections developing acute respiratory distress syndrome falling for 6–2% in the same twelve-month period. Despite the wave of infections, the public response was to increase the tendency to expose themselves to a high-risk environment (e.g., leaving home) each day from 33–58% in the same period. The predictions for October 2023 indicate a wave of infections three times larger this coming year than last year with significant health and economic consequences such as 120,000 additional COVID-19 related deaths, 800,000 additional hospital admissions and 3.5 million people suffering acute-post-COVID-19 syndrome lasting more than 12 weeks. Interpretation The increase in transmissibility together with the public's response provide plausible explanations for why the model underestimated the 12-month predictions to October 2022. The 2023 projection could well-underestimate the predicted substantial next wave of COVID-19 infection. Vaccination alone will not control the epidemic. The UK COVID-19 epidemic is not over. The results call for investment in precautionary public health interventions.
In this work, we present a nonlinear principal component analysis (PCA) that identifies underlying sources causing the expression of spatial modes or patterns of activity in neuroimaging time series where these sources can interact to produce second-order modes.This nonlinear PCA uses a neural network architecture that embodies a specific form for the mixing of sources that is based on a second-order approximation to any general nonlinear mixing.The modes obtained have a unique rotation and scaling that does not depend on the biologically implausible constraints adopted by conventional PCA.Interactions among sources render the expression of any mode or brain system sensitive to the expression of others.The example considers interactions among functionally specialized brain systems (using a fMRI study of colour and motion processing).Hum.