Why design must change

In the mid 1980's the power growth that accompanied scaling forced the industry to focus on CMOS technology, and leave nMOS and bipolars for niche applications. Twenty years later, CMOS technology is facing power issues of its own. After first reviewing the "cause" of the problem, it will become clear that there are not easy solutions this time -- no new technology or simple system/circuit change will rescue us. Power, and not number of devices is now the primary limiter of chip performance, and the need to create power efficient designs is changing how we do design. In the past, we would turn to specialized computation (ASICs) to create the needed efficiency, but the rising NRE costs for chip design (now over $10M/chip) has caused the number of ASIC design starts to fall not rise.