The Impact of Policy Restrictions and Mobility Changes on Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in The Netherlands, 2020-2022

We analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 policy restrictions on mobility patterns and excess mortality at the regional level in The Netherlands between 2020 and 2022. Our analysis combines data on public policies, mobility patterns from the Google Mobility Reports, officially registered COVID-19 cases and deaths, and region-specific measures of excess mortality over a relatively long time period extending beyond the first wave of the pandemic. We modeled the dynamic relationships of these variables as a system in which policy responds to information about the pandemic; mobility reacts both to information about the pandemic and to policy; the number of COVID-19 cases is influenced by changes in mobility and policy; and excess mortality is affected directly by the policy restrictions and indirectly via the impact of policy on mobility. The results confirm that the stringency of policy restrictions increased with the number and growth rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Mobility, as reflected in presence in public places (transport hubs, retail, work), decreased while presence at residential locations increased in response to stricter policies and higher COVID-19 case and death counts in preceding weeks. The number of new COVID-19 cases declined when stricter policy restrictions were enacted and reduced presence in public places (following a two-week lag). Excess mortality decreased with stricter policy restrictions (with a five-week lag) and, to a lesser extent, with reduced presence in public places and increased presence in places of residence. Importantly, the effects of policy restrictions and mobility diminished with consecutive COVID-19 waves. Overall, the evidence shows that policy restrictions were effective in limiting the spread of the pandemic and in saving lives. While policies influenced mobility patterns, their impact was not fully mediated by mobility changes.