Excess deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic: An international comparison
Preprint 2020 en
Authors
KD
Kieran F. Docherty
JB
Jawad H. Butt
RB
Rudolf A. de Boer
Abstract
2 min read
Abstract Background With the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) there has been disruption to normal clinical activity in response to the increased demand on health services. There are reports of a reduction in non-Covid-19 emergency presentations. Consequentially, there are concerns that deaths from non-Covid-19 causes could increase. We examined recent reported population-based mortality rates, compared with expected rates, and compared any excess in deaths with the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. Methods National agency and death registration reports were searched for numbers of deaths attributed to Covid-19 and overall mortality that had been publicly reported by 06 May 2020. Data on the number of deaths attributed to Covid-19, the total number of deaths registered in the population and the historical average over at least 3 years were collected. Data were available for 4 European countries (England & Wales, Scotland, Netherlands and Italy) and New York State, United States of America. Results There was an increase in observed, compared with expected, mortality in Scotland (+68%), England and Wales (+74%), the Netherlands (+58%), Italy (+39%) and New York state (+49%). Of these deaths, only 73% in Scotland, 71 % in England and Wales, 53% in the Netherlands, 54% in Italy and 79% in New York state were attributed to Covid-19 leaving a number of excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19. In the 5-week period of study, Scotland, 10% of the excess of deaths were attributed to dementia/Alzheimer’s disease and 7% to cardiovascular causes. Conclusion A substantial proportion of excess deaths observed during the current COVID-19 pandemic are not attributed to COVID-19 and may represent unrecognised deaths due to Covid-19, an excess of deaths due to other causes, or both. The impact of Covid-19 on mortality and morbidity from other causes needs to be quantified and addressed in public health planning.
Camila Caram‐Deelder, Astrid van Hylckama Vlieg, Rolf H. H. Groenwold, Qingui Chen, Dennis O. Mook‐Kanamori, Olaf M Dekkers, Eva A. S. Koster, Liesbeth C. de Wreede, Cees van Nieuwkoop, Dimiter Toshkov, Frits R. Rosendaal
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