Based on mortality data from 93% of Italian municipalities, there was an over 50% excess total mortality in March and a 38% excess in April, corresponding to over 46,000 excess deaths in those two months - as compared to 28,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in March and April. No subsequent excess mortality was observed, and in June reported total deaths were 6.2% less than expected. In the first 6 months of 2020, an 11.1% excess mortality was observed in Italy, and an almost 50% excess in Lombardy, the most affected region. Timely monitoring of total mortality has relevant implications for monitoring the COVID-19 pandemic and controlling occupational and social exposures.
Xuyang Tang, Leslie Newcombe, Wilson Suraweera, Craig A. Schultz, Isaac I. Bogoch, Hellen Gelband, Nico Nagelkerke, Prabhat Jha, Patrick Brown, K. Rai, Carlo La Vecchia, Peter S. Rodriguez, Kathleen Qu, Mathew G Brown, Hwashin Hyun Shin
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