Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels

Significance The climate benefits of cellulosic biofuels have been challenged based on carbon debt, opportunity costs, and indirect land use change, prompting calls for withdrawing support for research and development. Using a quantitative ecosystem modeling approach, which explicitly differentiates primary production, ecosystem carbon balance, and biomass harvest, we show that none of these arguments preclude cellulosic biofuels from realizing greenhouse gas mitigation. Our assessment illustrates how deliberate land use choices support the climate performance of current-day cellulosic ethanol technology and how technological advancements and carbon capture and storage addition could produce several times the climate mitigation potential of competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. These results affirm the climate mitigation logic of biofuels, consistent with their prominent role in many climate stabilization scenarios.