Reliable quantification of COVID-19 mortality worldwide

A proper understanding of COVID-19 mortality is central to effective responses. We examine the trends in mortality rates and totals in China, South Korea, Italy, Spain, and New York State to provide some estimate of possible best and worst-case scenarios of COVID-19 deaths in high-income countries. We review also the challenges in tracking mortality in low-income countries, where many deaths occur at home without medical certification, and for which alternative systems to document COVID-19 mortality will be needed. We also explain the role and appropriate timing of antibody-based surveillance to understand the extent of the first wave of COVID-19 and resulting case fatality rates.