Post-pandemic mortality patterns and COVID-19 burden considering multiple death causes

ABSTRACT Background Post-pandemic mortality rates can explore the residual COVID-19 burden and changes in other causes of death. Considering weighted multiple causes of death from death certificates (underlying and others) may help compare post-versus pre-pandemic mortality patterns, while potentially reducing the impact of cause misattribution. Estimates of post-pandemic impact are critical also for proper continuing public health policies (e.g. vaccinations). Methods We retrospectively analyse national all-cause mortality rate ratios between 2024 and pre-pandemic years (2017-2019) for gender-stratified 10-year age groups in Austria. In weighted analyses, the underlying death cause was weighted 50% and other causes shared the remaining 50%. Sensitivity analyses explored different weightings. Death-specific causes were also compared between 2024 and 2019. Lastly, number needed to vaccinate (NNV) was estimated for 5-year age groups in hypothetical scenarios. Results Despite 1,212 reported COVID-19 deaths in 2024, all-cause mortality rates were equal or lower in 2024 compared to 2019 in all strata at risk from COVID-19 (i.e., aged 60 years and over). All-cause mortality rates in 2024 were higher than in 2019 in adolescent and young adult strata. The ratio of weighted over unweighted COVID-19 death rates was 0.52-0.58 for age strata 60 years and older and even lower in sensitivity analyses, indicating that COVID-19 deaths were likely overestimated. Estimated NNV exceeded 1,700 up to 80 years old, even with 100% assumed vaccine effectiveness. Conclusions Post-pandemic COVID-19 deaths had no visible impact on mortality patterns in Austria and were likely overcounted. Increased post-pandemic mortality patterns in the young are particularly worrisome.