On the loading/shear strength coupling in the probabilistic formulation of the limit-state in shear for gravity dams

This paper proposes a methodology to take into account of the dependence between hydraulic loading and shear strength in a probability-based procedure for assessing the gravity dam structural safety. This is a major point in a probability-based approach where extreme loadings are a determining factor of dam reliability. The proposed approach uses a parabolic formulation of concrete shear strength. It aims at providing a better representation of the intrinsic curve for normal stress lower levels that might develop in the dam upstream area under extreme hydrostatic loading conditions. Based on the FORM method and on Monte Carlo simulations, a case study shows how relevant the proposed method is and the impact thereof on the results of a reliability analysis completed for an existing gravity dam.