Identifying Sustainable Offshore Wind Farm Sites in Greece Under Climate Change

Wind power has gained attention as a vital renewable energy source capable of reducing emissions and serving as an effective alternative to fossil fuels. Floating wind farms could significantly enhance the energy capacities of Mediterranean countries. However, location selection for offshore wind farms (OWFs) is a challenge for renewable energy policy and marine spatial planning (MSP). To address these issues, this study considers the marine space of Greece to propose a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework employing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify suitable sites for OWFs. The approach assesses 19 exclusion criteria encompassing legislative, environmental, safety, and technical constraints to determine the eligible areas. Subsequently, 10 evaluation criteria are weighted to determine the selected areas’ level of suitability. The study considers baseline conditions (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for two horizons (2011–2040 and 2041–2070), integrating projected wind velocities and sea level rise to evaluate potential shifts in suitable areas. Results indicate the central and southeastern Aegean Sea as the most suitable areas for OWF deployment. Climate projections indicate a modest increase in suitable areas. The findings serve as input for climate-resilient MSP seeking to promote sustainable energy development.