No abstract is provided for this article.
No abstract is provided for this article.
No abstract is provided for this article.
Concerned with understanding how people make decisions about gambles when the relevant probabilities and payoffs are explicitly stated. It is proposed that decisions may be determined by a person's beliefs about the relative importance of probabilities and payoffs and by limitations on his ability t
How should the affective component of attitudes be conceptualised and measured? Three studies compared measures based on different conceptualisations. Affective attitudes can be: (1) holistic reactions to objects or responses derived from spontaneous images of the objects; (2) bipolar or unipolar in structure; and finally (3) discrete emotional evaluations (e.g., angry, happy) or more general valenced evaluations (e.g., good, bad). It is recommended that further research with self-reports of the affective component include the holistic, unipolar, discrete emotion (HUE) evaluative measures developed in this paper in combination with a holistic bipolar valenced evaluation measure. Our results also supported a hypothesised affective asynchrony effect. Specifically, an affective measure that required more deliberative thought reduced the correspondence between the affective component and intended behaviours/attitudes. Implications for how the affective component may be represented in memory and the impact of that representation on constructed attitudes are discussed briefly.
Citing public fear and mistrust, strong opposition to the proposed Yucca Mountain repository site, and less-than-exemplary performance by the Department of Energy (DOE), two private researchers believe present high-level radioactive waste-disposal plans may have to be scrapped. Government and the nuclear industry may have to start over. Policy makers should seek to develop new relationships with communities and states where suitable disposal sites exist. These relationships may require that citizen groups and local institutions be given unprecedented authority in locating and operating such facilities. Contrary to popular impressions, there is still time to take a new approach. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission says present on-site storage arrangements offer a safe alternative for 100 years or more. The sense of immediate crisis and cries for immediate solutions should be calmed and a more considered strategy brought to the public debate. For starters, the researchers propose that the problems of defense waste be separated from the problems of commercial waste. They also suggest that DOE be assigned responsibility for defense waste and a new agency be created to handle high-level commercial waste.
Abstract : This research note discusses one important finding from decision aiding research, that people often have relevant knowledge that they do not use effectively when making a judgement or decision. Research has shown, however, that simple 'wholistic' judgements can be improved upon through an approach that breaks up or decomposes the problem into a series of sub-problems, or components, each of which can be understood more easily and judged separately. The components are the assembled according to a logically prescribed set of combination rules to yield a solution, estimate, or prediction. In the present paper, we outline how a decomposition approach may help a large consortium of expert judges to utilize their own knowledge base more effectively, in an extremely difficult and important judgement task -- (the task examined is assessment of dangerousness among people who have threatened to assassinate the President of the United States). Keywords: Decomposition principles, Knowledge elicitation, Decision analysis, Expert judgements, Problem solving.
This paper describes two fundamental modes of thinking. The experiential mode, is intuitive, automatic, natural, and based upon images to which positive and negative affective feelings have been attached through learning and experience. The other mode is analytic, deliberative, and reason based. I describe recent empirical research illuminating “the affect heuristic” wherein people rapidly consult their affective feelings, when making judgments and decisions. This heuristic enables us to be rational actors in many situations. It works beautifully when experience enables us to anticipate accurately how we will like or dislike the consequences of our decisions. However, it fails miserably when the consequences turn out to be much different than we anticipated. In the latter circumstances, the rational actor may well become the rational fool.
No abstract is provided for this article.
RAD-AR, standing for risk assessment of drugs—analysis and response, is a program designed to improve the analysis and management of drug risks. Within the context of the RAD-AR program, risk perception has been designated as a priority research area. Knowledge...
No abstract is provided for this article.
Cigarette smoking is a major source of mortality and medical costs in the United States. More graphic and salient warning labels on cigarette packs as used in Canada may help to reduce smoking initiation and increase quit attempts. However, the labels also may lead to defensive reactions among smokers. In an experimental setting, smokers and nonsmokers were exposed to Canadian or U.S. warning labels. Compared with current U.S. labels, Canadian labels produced more negative affective reactions to smoking cues and to the smoker image among both smokers and nonsmokers without signs of defensive reactions from smokers. A majority of both smokers and nonsmokers endorsed the use of Canadian labels in the United States. Canadian-style warnings should be adopted in the United States as part of the country's overall tobacco control strategy.
Background: The majority of smokers regret ever starting to smoke, yet the vast majority continue to smoke despite the fact that smoking kills nearly 50% of lifetime users. This study examined the relationships between regret and smoker characteristics, quit history, risk perceptions, experiential thinking, and beliefs and intentions at time of smoking initiation. Methods: Data from the 2014 Tobacco Products and Risk Perceptions Survey, a nationally representative survey of United States adults, were analyzed to provide the latest prevalence estimates of regret and potential predictors. Relationships among predictor variables and regret were analyzed using correlations, t-tests, and multinomial logistic regression. Results: The majority of smokers (71.5%) regretted starting to smoke. Being older and non-Hispanic white were significant predictors of regret. Smokers having a high intention to quit, having made quit attempts in the past year, worrying about getting lung cancer, believing smoking every day can be risky for your health, perceiving a risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer during one’s lifetime, and considering themselves addicted to cigarettes were significant predictors of regret for smoking initiation. Conclusions: This study provides updated prevalence data on regret using a national sample, and confirms that regret is associated with perceived risk. The findings from this study can be used to inform smoking intervention programs and support the inclusion of smoker regret in cost–benefit analyses of the economic impact of tobacco regulations.
challenges Professor Viscusi by suggesting that "risk" is a term with varying meanings and the potential for misinterpretation by study participants.He distinguishes between the probability and severity of a risk, and suggests that teens who know the probability of smoking causing cancer are not aware of the severity of the experience of cancer.He goes on to note that people often perceive themselves as being less at risk than others, and observes that Professor Viscusi's study posed questions about others, instead of asking teens to assess their own risks.Thirdly, he argues that teens perceive each individual cigarette as posing a small risk even if they seem to be aware of the larger risk of smoking.Finally, since many teen smokers intend to quit, he contends, they do not see smoking as hazardous to themselves.He argues that Professor Viscusi underrates the misperception of the risks of personal addiction.Professor Slovic augments his argument with original research demonstrating that smoking teens are more likely than nonsmoking teens to perceive the short term risks of smoking as trivial.
We conducted an experimental public opinion study of the effect of balanced information on nanotechnology risk-benefit perceptions. The study found that subjects did not react in a uniform, much less a uniformly positive manner, but rather polarized along lines consistent with cultural predispositions toward technological risk generally.
