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The benefits of modern technology often involve health, safety and environmental risks that produce public suspicion of technologies and aversion to certain
As space scientists and engineers plan new missions to Mars and other planets in our solar system, they will face critical questions about the potential for biological contamination of planetary surfaces. In a society that places ever-increasing importance on the role of public involvement in science and technology policy, questions about risks of biological contamination will be examined and debated in the media, and will lead to the formation of public perceptions of planetary-contamination risks. These perceptions will, over time, form an important input to the development of space policy. Previous research in public and expert perceptions of technological risks and hazards has shown that many of the problems faced by risk-management organizations are the result of differing perceptions of risk (and risk management) between the general public and scientific and technical experts. These differences manifest themselves both as disagreements about the definition (and level) of risk associated with a scientific, technological or industrial enterprise, and as distrust about the ability of risk-management organizations (both public and private) to adequately protect people's health and safety. This report presents the results of a set of survey studies designed to reveal perceptions of planetary exploration and protection from a wide range of respondents, including both members of the general public and experts in the life sciences. The potential value of this research lies in what it reveals about perceptions of risk and benefit that could improve risk-management policies and practices. For example, efforts to communicate with the public about Mars sample return missions could benefit from an understanding of the specific concerns that nonscientists have about such a mission by suggesting areas of potential improvement in public education and information. Assessment of both public and expert perceptions of risk can also be used to provide an advanced signal of aspects of planetary exploration and protection that may be particularly sensitive or controversial and that could prove problematic from a risk-management standpoint, perhaps warranting a more stringent risk-management approach than would otherwise be the case based on technical considerations alone. The design of the study compares perceptions and attitudes about space exploration relevant to a Mars sample return mission between three respondent groups: (1) members of The Planetary Society, a group representing individuals with a strong interest in space-related issues, (2) a group of university-aged students, representing a population relatively sensitive to environmental hazards, and (3) a group of life scientists outside of the space research community. Members of The Planetary Society received the survey as part of a special issue of The Planetary Report on planetary protection, which contained a number of background articles on planetary protection and related topics. A synopsis of the issue was prepared as an introduction to the survey for the other two groups.
This chapter introduces a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions. As used here, affect means the specific quality of "goodness" or "badness" (1) experienced as a feeling state (with or without consciousness) and (2) demarcating a positive or negative quality of a stimulus. Affective responses occur rapidly and automatically – note how quickly you sense the feelings associated with the stimulus words treasure or hate. We argue that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as the affect heuristic. In this chapter, we trace the development of the affect heuristic across a variety of research paths followed by ourselves and many others. We also discuss some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.
Measuring reaction times to number comparisons is thought to reveal a processing stage in elementary numerical cognition linked to internal, imprecise representations of number magnitudes. These intuitive representations of the mental number line have been demonstrated across species and human development but have been little explored in decision making. This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the influence of such evolutionarily ancient, intuitive numbers on human decisions. We demonstrate that individuals with more precise mental-number-line representations are higher in numeracy (number skills) consistent with previous research with children. Individuals with more precise representations (compared to those with less precise representations) also were more likely to choose larger, later amounts over smaller, immediate amounts, particularly with a larger proportional difference between the two monetary outcomes. In addition, they were more likely to choose an option with a larger proportional but smaller absolute difference compared to those with less precise representations. These results are consistent with intuitive number representations underlying: a) perceived differences between numbers, b) the extent to which proportional differences are weighed in decisions, and, ultimately, c) the valuation of decision options. Human decision processes involving numbers important to health and financial matters may be rooted in elementary, biological processes shared with other species.
No abstract is provided for this article.
Prior studies have observed that, in separate evaluation, the attractiveness of playing a simple gamble (7/36 to win $9; otherwise win nothing) is greatly enhanced by introducing a small loss (7/36 win $9; otherwise lose 5¢). The present studies tested and confirmed an explanation of this finding based on the concept of evaluability and the affect heuristic. Evaluators of the no-loss gamble lack a precise for how good $9 is, hence give it little weight in their judgment. The unattractive probability (7/36) determines the response. In the second gamble, comparison with the small loss makes $9 come alive with feeling and become weighted in the judgment, increasing attractiveness of the gamble. These results demonstrate the importance of contextual factors in determining affect and preference for simple risktaking opportunities. They show that the meaning, utility, and weighting of even a very familiar monetary outcome such as $9 is not fixed, but depends greatly on these contextual factors
AbstractSubjective judgments, whether by experts or lay people, are a major component in any risk assessment. If such judgments are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to be misdirected. The present paper begins with an analysis of biases exhibited by lay people and experts when they make judgments about risk. Next, the similarities and differences between lay and expert evaluations are examined in the context of a specific set of activities and technologies. Finally, some special issues are discussed, including the difficulty of reconciling divergent opinions about risk, the possible irrelevance of voluntariness as a determinant of acceptable risk, the importance of catastrophic potential in determing perceptions and triggering social conflict, and the need to facilitate public participation in the management of hazards.
Drawing from psychological research, the study examines how story form influences reader reaction to news accounts of mass violence in Africa. An online survey with embedded experimental conditions was administered to a US Internet panel (n = 638). Results show that how the story is told affects reader emotional response and, indirectly, charitable giving. Story personification had the strongest influence, followed by stories with photographic images. Use of statistical and mobilizing information had only a small effect on reader response. The straight news story – the predominant form of news reporting – evoked the weakest emotional response. The findings underscore that simply ‘reporting the news’ is often insufficient to arouse audience response. The reader needs empathetic connection, especially when dealing with large-scale distant suffering. Applying psychological principles to practical journalism, the study is intended to guide media practitioners and activists as they seek better ways to bring attention to the world’s most deplorable conditions.
Decision makers are often presented with explicit likelihood assessments (e.g., there is a 10% chance that an attack will occur over the next 3 months) and supporting narrative evidence in forecasting and risk communication domains. Decision makers are thought to rely on both numerical and narrative information to the extent that they perceive the information to be diagnostic, accurate, and trustworthy. In two studies, we explored how lay decision makers varying in numeracy evaluated and used likelihood assessments and narrative evidence in forecasts. Overall, the less numerate reported higher risk and likelihood perceptions. In simple probabilistic forecasts without narrative evidence, decision makers at all levels of numeracy were able to use the stated likelihood information, although risk perceptions of the less numerate were more affected by likelihood format. When a forecast includes narrative evidence, decision makers were better able to use stated likelihood in a percentage as compared to frequency or verbal formats. The more numerate used stated likelihood more in their evaluations whereas the less numerate focused more on the narrative evidence. These results have important implications for risk analysts and forecasters who need to report the results of their analyses to decision makers. Decision makers varying in numerical ability may evaluate forecasts in different ways depending on the types of information they find easiest to evaluate.
Psychological research on risk perception is the focus of this chapter, originated in empirical studies of probability assessment, utility assessment, and decision making processes. A major development in this area has been the discovery of a set of mental strategies, or heuristics, that people employ in order to make sense out of an uncertain world. The chapter addresses the social amplification of risk. The research described in this chapter has implications for social impact analysis that transcend the conflicts and concerns surrounding the proposed Yucca Mountain repository. The study of socioeconomic impacts at Yucca Mountain has demonstrated that the so-called “standard effects” of large engineering projects on local employment, housing, and transportation have the potential to be dwarfed by the "special effects" of risk perception and stigma.
No abstract is provided for this article.
During the 1980s, seismic research suggested that Oregon and the City of Portland had a higher risk of a major earthquake than had previously been assumed. In 1993, the State of Oregon adopted a new version of the Oregon Structural Specialty Code, which changed the designation of western Oregon from seismic zone 2b to seismic zone 3. The City of Portland established a program and a Task Force on Seismic Strengthening of Buildings to recommend actions that would encourage upgrading of city buildings. A survey of adult city residents was conducted in April, 1996 to determine public attitudes and opinions about earthquake risks, management and mitigation of earthquake hazards, priorities for protection by strengthening buildings, evaluations of strategies for informing the public about earthquake risks, and support for specific options the city might take to protect citizens against earthquake events. Social and demographic information on individuals and households was also collected. Respondents provided ratings for a wide range of social and environmental risks, provided information on priorities for strengthening key buildings and infrastructure facilities, and answered hypothetical questions about voting for bond measures to pay for city earthquake mitigation programs. Respondents recognized significant risk from earthquakes and supported programs to protect people, especially vulnerable residents such as children and the sick. There was strong support for protecting emergency response capabilities. There was much less support for using public funds to reduce the risks associated with privately owned buildings. There were also some strong pockets of resistance to publicly funded mitigation programs in response to the hypothetical bond measures.
What determines whether people will protect themselves against the severe losses that might arise from some rare hazard? What factors underlie the perception and acceptability of risks associated with technology? The answers to questions such as these are vital for understanding how people cope with threats from accidents, diseases, and natural hazards and for helping them manage their lives more effectively in the face of such risks. The role that the study of judgment and decision processes can play in providing answers to these questions will be explored in this chapter. Experiments concerning insurance decisions, risk perception, and evaluation of technological risks will be described, and the implications of this research for matters of public safety and health will be discussed.
Attempts by the federal government and the nuclear industry to develop sites for disposal of high-level and low-level radioactive wastes have been stymied by public and political opposition. The record of strenuous protest against nuclear waste repositories, as well as the findings of numerous public opinion surveys, make it clear that public opposition is widespread and deeply felt. It is also clear that there is an immense gap between the perceptions of the public and the views of technical experts and nuclear-industry officials.
