Publications

Prediction models aim to use available data to predict a health state or outcome that has not yet been observed. Prediction is primarily relevant to clinical practice, but is also used in research, and administration. While prediction modeling involves estimating the relationship between patient factors and outcomes, it is distinct from casual inference. Prediction modeling thus requires unique considerations for development, validation, and updating. This document represents an effort from editors at 31 respiratory, sleep, and critical care medicine journals to consolidate contemporary best practices and recommendations related to prediction study design, conduct, and reporting. Herein, we address issues commonly encountered in submissions to our various journals. Key topics include considerations for selecting predictor variables, operationalizing variables, dealing with missing data, the importance of appropriate validation, model performance measures and their interpretation, and good reporting practices. Supplemental discussion covers emerging topics such as model fairness, competing risks, pitfalls of "modifiable risk factors", measurement error, and risk for bias. This guidance is not meant to be overly prescriptive; we acknowledge that every study is different, and no set of rules will fit all cases. Additional best practices can be found in the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines, to which we refer readers for further details.

This document reflects a process whereby a group of experts and opinion leaders revisited the 1992 sepsis guidelines and found that apart from expanding the list of signs and symptoms of sepsis to reflect clinical bedside experience, no evidence exists to support a change to the definitions. This lack of evidence serves to underscore the challenge still present in diagnosing sepsis in 2003 for clinicians and researchers and also provides the basis for introducing PIRO as a hypothesis-generating model for future research.

Bond, Ottavia; Pozzebon, Selene; Scolletta, Sabino; Franchi, Federico; Cavicchi, Federica Zama; Creteur, Jacques; Vincent, Jean-Louis; Taccone, Fabio Silvio

Since the gradient between the mixed venous and hepatic vein oxygen saturation (DSO2) is often increased in septic patients, we suspected these patients may have an imbalance between oxygen supply and demand in the hepato-splanchnic area. In 42 septic patients, hepato-splanchnic blood flow was determined by the indocyanine green clearance method with hepatic vein catheterization. The relationships between hepato-splanchnic oxygen delivery (DO2spla) and consumption (VO2spla) were analyzed during an increase in blood flow induced by a dobutamine infusion at doses up to 10 microg/kg x min. In 14 patients, positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) was also increased up to 20 cm H2O. The patients were separated according to their DSO2 (Group I: DSO2 < 10%, n = 13; and Group II: DSO2 > 10%, n = 29). Although DO2spla increased similarly in both groups, VO2spla only increased in Group II (from 45+/-22 to 59+/-39 ml/min x M2, p < 0.01). The slope of the VO2spla/DO2spla relationship was higher in Group II than in Group I (31.2+/-16.7 versus 10.4+/-5.1%, p < 0.001) and was similar during dobutamine and PEEP (21.9+/-14.2 versus 21.9+/-14.0%, p = NS). In conclusion, VO2spla increased only in septic patients with an increased DSO2 indicating splanchnic dysoxia. The similar slope observed with dobutamine and PEEP suggests that a thermogenic effect was unlikely.

Fontana, Vito; Dell’Anna, Antonio; Chase, J Geoffrey; Desaive, Thomas; Vincent, Jean-Louis; Preiser, Jean-Charles; Oddo, Mauro; Taccone, Fabio Silvio

To evaluate differences in ICU patients with proven invasive candidiasis (Proven-IC), possible invasive candidiasis (Possible-IC), probable Candida colonization (colonized), and non-infected, noncolonized (non-infected) patients.

Red cell distribution width (RDW) is a quantitative measure of the variability in size of erythrocytes and it is used for the differential diagnosis of anemia. Moreover, in critically ill patients, high RDW values have been associated with increased hospital mortality. No data on the impact of RDW on the outcome of patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest (CA) are available.