The state of the practice in blast-resistant applications against explosions is to design the structural components for a prescribed combination of explosive mass and location, namely the design basis threat. In this context, the blast source is represented by specific scenarios, mostly associated with expert judgement, rating systems or code provisions. While offering a useful basis for practical applications, the level of detail can be significantly enhanced within a probabilistic framework for risk assessment. In research practice, plenty simplified probabilistic approaches have been proposed on external explosions in order to perform risk assessment. A rigorous methodology for such an assessment is presented herein, using tools and techniques derived from seismic risk-assessment applications. Specifically, the mean annual frequency of different explosive mass hazards is represented via a recurrence law, while the potential locations are modelled as a 2D spatial distribution, accounting for the various layers of defense that exist around the structure, i.e., perimeter protection, landscape, public or private spaces, etc. The methodology is finally substantiated with the case study of a typical building subjected to potential blast loadings from external aggressors.
Quantifying the impact of modelling uncertainty on seismic performance assessment of existing buildings is non-trivial when considering the partial information available on material properties, construction details, and the uncertainty in the capacity models. This task is further complicated when uncertainty related to ground motion representation is considered. To address this issue, record-to-record variability, uncertainties in structural model parameters, and fragility model parameters due to limited sample size are propagated herein by employing a nonlinear dynamic analysis procedure based on recorded ground motions. A one-to-one sampling approach is adopted in which each recorded ground motion is paired up with a different structural model realization. Uncertainty propagation is explored by measuring the impact of different sampling techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation with standard random sampling and Latin Hypercube sampling (with Simulated Annealing) in the presence of three alternative nonlinear dynamic analysis procedures: Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA), Modified Cloud Analysis (MCA), and Cloud to IDA (a highly efficient IDA-like procedure). This is all illustrated through application to an existing reinforced-concrete school building in southern Italy. It is shown that with a small subset of records, both MCA and Cloud to IDA can provide reliable structural fragility (and risk) estimates for three considered limit states, comparable to the results of more resource-intensive schemes.
A stressor above a threshold magnitude, or multiple stressors applied simultaneously, cause an organism to alter its behaviour and physiology, with the aim of maintaining homeostasis. The adaptive changes that occur are coordinated and mediated by the stress system in the central nervous system (which includes corticotrophin-releasing hormone and noradrenergic neurons in the hypothalamus and brainstem, respectively), and its peripheral limbs, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis and the autonomic (sympathetic) system. Controlled or self-driven challenges to homeostasis and a normally functioning stress system are crucial for normal development and preservation of self and species. In childhood and adolescence, appropriately functioning neuroendocrine responses to stressors are necessary to allow growth and psychosexual maturation to progress normally. Maladaptive neuroendocrine responses, i.e. dysregulation of the stress system, may lead to disturbances in growth and development and cause psychiatric, endocrine/metabolic and/or autoimmune diseases or vulnerability to such diseases, not only during childhood and adolescence, but also in adulthood.
de Bellis, Michael D.; Chrousos, George P.; Dorn, Lorah D.; Burke, Lillian; Helmers, Karin; Kling, Mitchel A.; Trickett, Penelope K.; Putman, Frank W. Author Information
From a transactional developmental perspective, the authors review findings from studies of animals and humans regarding a proposed relation between stress system abnormalities and major depression. The stress system has evolved to promote successful adaptation across the life span, but disruptions in its functioning may increase the risk of pathological outcomes. Emphasis is placed on the role of prenatal and early postnatal experience in contributing to individual differences in postnatal stress reactivity, which may interact with cognitive and psychosocial vulnerabilities to increase susceptibility to later onset of depression. Findings regarding cognitive, psychosocial, and medical sequelae of depression are also reviewed, with a focus on the possible mediating role of the stress system. The authors highlight the importance of multidisciplinary, longitudinal studies in attempting to gain a deeper understanding of the complex developmental processes involved in the onset and course of depression.
The reliable estimation of the seismic performance of structures requires quantifying the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the system parameters. This is efficiently achieved for a case study of a four-story steel moment-resisting frame through several important advances. First, a state-of-the-art numerical model is formed with full spatial parameterization of its strength and plastic deformation properties. Empirical relationships derived from experimental data are used to model the cyclic behavior of steel sections using probabilistically distributed parameters that include intra- and inter-component correlation. Finally, incremental dynamic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation are employed to accurately assess the seismic performance of the model under the influence of uncertainties. Of interest is the extent to which model parameter uncertainties may trigger negative demand-capacity correlation in structural fragility evaluation, where, for example, a lower ductility capacity for a component may decrease the threshold for local failure while at the same time raising the local demand estimate from an uncertainty-aware model. With respect to the examined steel moment-resisting frame and considering three construction quality levels (i.e. very good, average, low) as per FEMA P-58, it is shown that, despite the good agreement of the evaluated structural demands obtained with and without consideration of the model parameter uncertainties for well-designed modern buildings, the potential demand-capacity correlation is likely to give rise to unconservative estimates of fragility for local damage-states, especially in cases where substandard quality control is exercised during construction.
