International audience
Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km 2 , depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied.
Abstract. Dark CO2 fixation by bacteria is believed to be particularly important in oligotrophic ecosystems. However, only a few studies have characterized the role of bacterial dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fixation in global carbon dynamics. Therefore, this study quantified the primary production (PP), total bacteria dark CO2 fixation (TBDIC fixation), and heterotrophic bacterial production (HBP) in the warm and oligotrophic Red Sea using stable-isotope labeling and cavity ring-down spectroscopy (13C–CRDS). Additionally, we assessed the contribution of bacterial DIC fixation (TBDIC %) relative to the total DIC fixation (totalDIC fixation). Our study demonstrated that TBDIC fixation increased the totalDIC fixation from 2.03 to 60.45 µg C L−1 d−1 within the photic zone, contributing 13.18 % to 71.68 % with an average value of 33.95 ± 0.02 % of the photic layer totalDIC fixation. The highest TBDIC fixation values were measured at the surface and deep (400 m) water with an average value of 5.23 ± 0.45 and 4.95 ± 1.33 µg C L−1 d−1, respectively. These findings suggest that the non-photosynthetic processes such as anaplerotic DIC reactions and chemoautotrophic CO2 fixation extended to the entire oxygenated water column. On the other hand, the percent of TBDIC contribution to totalDIC fixation increased as primary production decreased (R2=0.45, p<0.0001), suggesting the relevance of increased dark DIC fixation when photosynthetic production was low or absent, as observed in other systems. Therefore, when estimating the total carbon dioxide production in the ocean, dark DIC fixation must also be accounted for as a crucial component of the carbon dioxide flux in addition to photosynthesis.
Automated positioning devices can generate large datasets with information on the movement of humans, animals and objects, revealing patterns of movement, hot spots and overlaps among others. This information is obtained after cleaning the data from errors of different natures. However, in the case of Automated Information Systems (AIS), attached to vessels, these errors can come from intentional manipulation of the electronic device. Thus, the analysis of anomalies can provide valuable information on suspicious behaviour. Here, we analyse anomalies of fishing vessel trajectories obtained with the Automatic Identification System. The map of silence anomalies, those occurring when positioning data is absent for more than 24 h, shows that they occur more likely closer to land, observing 94.9% of the anomalies at less than 100 km from the shore. This behaviour suggests the potential of identifying silence anomalies as a proxy for illegal activities. With the increasing availability of high-resolution positioning of vessels and the development of powerful statistical analytical tools, we provide hints on the automatic detection of illegal activities that may help optimise monitoring, control and surveillance measures.
Abstract Evolutionary ecology theory provides an avenue to anticipate the future behavior of SARS-CoV-2. Here we quantify the accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by tracking the SARS-CoV-2 mutation globally, with a focus on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein believed to determine infectivity. We estimate that 384 million people were infected by March 1st, 2021, producing up to 10 21 copies of the virus, with one new RBD variant appearing for every 600,000 human infections, resulting in approximately three new effective RBD variants produced daily. Doubling the number of RBD variants every 71.67 days followed by selection of the most infective variants challenges our defenses and calls for a shift to anticipatory, rather than reactive tactics. One-Sentence Summary Accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 demands formulating universal vaccines and treatments based on big-data simulations of possible new variants.