Abstract Evolutionary ecology theory provides an avenue to anticipate the future behavior of SARS-CoV-2. Here we quantify the accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by tracking the SARS-CoV-2 mutation globally, with a focus on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein believed to determine infectivity. We estimate that 384 million people were infected by March 1st, 2021, producing up to 10 21 copies of the virus, with one new RBD variant appearing for every 600,000 human infections, resulting in approximately three new effective RBD variants produced daily. Doubling the number of RBD variants every 71.67 days followed by selection of the most infective variants challenges our defenses and calls for a shift to anticipatory, rather than reactive tactics. One-Sentence Summary Accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 demands formulating universal vaccines and treatments based on big-data simulations of possible new variants.
Carlos M. Duarte, David I. Ketcheson, Victor M. Eguı́luz, Susana Agustı́, Juan Fernández-Gracia, Tahira Jamil, Elisa Laiolo, Takashi Gojobori, Intikhab Álam
Mart M. Lamers, Joep Beumer, Jelte van der Vaart, Kèvin Knoops, Jens Puschhof, Tim I. Breugem, Raimond B. G. Ravelli, J. Paul van Schayck, Anna Z. Mykytyn, Hans Q. Duimel, Elly van Donselaar, Samra Riesebosch, Helma J.H. Kuijpers, Debby Schipper, Willine J. van de Wetering, Miranda de Graaf, Marion Koopmans, Edwin Cuppen, Peter J. Peters, Bart L. Haagmans, Hans Clevers, Mart M. Lamers, Joep Beumer, Jelte van der Vaart, Kèvin Knoops,
Mart M. Lamers, Tim I. Breugem, Anna Z. Mykytyn, Yiquan Wang, Nathalie Gröen, Kèvin Knoops, Debby Schipper, Jelte van der Vaart, Charlotte D. Koopman, Jingshu Zhang, Douglas C. Wu, Petra B. van den Doel, Theo M. Bestebroer, Corine H. GeurtsvanKessel, Peter J. Peters, Mauro J. Muraro, Hans Clevers, Nicholas C. Wu, Bart L. Haagmans
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