This paper contemplates ambitious reforms of the international financial architecture. It proposes routinising the expansion of IMF quotas and the conduct of exchange rate surveillance. It contemplates an expanded role for the SDR in international transactions, which would require someone — like the IMF — to act as market maker. It considers proposals for reimposing Glass–Steagall-like restrictions on commercial and investment banking, something that will have to be coordinated internationally to be feasible. All this of course presupposes meaningful IMF governance reform so that the institution has the legitimacy and efficiency to assume these additional responsibilities.
Reforming the international monetary system is a game that any number can play. The second half of the 19 th century saw a series of international monetary conferences designed to place the leading European countries on a common monetary standard. The 1920s saw the Brussels and Genoa Conferences. 1944 saw Bretton Woods. 1967 saw the creation of Special Drawing Rights, which US Treasury Secretary Henry Fowler hailed as “the most ambitious and significant effort in the area of international monetary affairs since Bretton Woods.” 1968 saw the creation of the two-tier gold market, which President Johnson welcomed as “the most significant reforms of the international monetary system since Bretton Woods.” 1971 saw the Smithsonian Agreement, which President Nixon lauded as “the most significant monetary achievement in the history of the world.” The point being, of course, that none of these international agreements fundamentally changed the trajectory of the international system. The most striking feature of the international monetary system from an historical perspective is continuity rather than change. Over this period the international system evolved from a gold standard to a gold exchange standard, to a gold-dollar standard, and then to a dollar standard. It is evolving now into a multiple reserve currency system. International monetary conferences and official initiatives can influence the system at the margin, both for better or for worse, but the “actually existing system” (to invoke language derived from a very different context) reflects a powerful underlying market logic. It is the thesis of this paper that a multiple reserve currency system is coming. The system for which we need to prepare is one in which the dollar, the euro and the renminbi will all be consequential international and reserve currencies. The international monetary system is growing more multipolar because the world economy is growing more multipolar. After World War II, when the United States (US) accounted for the majority of the industrial production of the non-Soviet world, it made sense that the dollar was the principal unit in which exporters and importers invoiced and settled their trade, in which international loans were extended, and in which central banks held their reserves. But this situation makes less sense today when the US accounts for only some 20 per cent of the combined output of countries engaged in international transactions. Because habits die hard, the dollar continues to play a disproportionately important role. But simply because this is true today does not mean that it will be true tomorrow. Countries that trade with and borrow from the euro area will increasingly seek to hold euros as reserves. Countries that trade with and borrow from the PRC will similarly seek to hold renminbi, if not today then in the not-too-distant future.
This paper describes how two complementary theories from complexity science can guide the successful design and implementation of integrated systems of health and social care for older adults who need multiple forms of care. Specifically, it describes two related theories: "complex adaptive systems" (CAS) theory and "relational network theory" (RNT), which provide overlapping frameworks for understanding the structure and dynamic function of care systems and their components. The paper begins by showing how these theories can guide the integration of the structures, people, and processes that provide care to older adults with multiple care needs. Then, to illustrate their application, it describes the early years of the All-Inclusive Care for Older Adults ("ALICE") program, which has co-created and co-managed an evolving health and social care system for an aging population in New South Wales, Australia. As other populations of older adults around the world expand, such effective integration of multi-faceted care will be necessary to optimize their well-being and quality of life. Future applications of CAS and RNT to the design and implementation of integrated health and social care promises to improve the quality and the effectiveness of the care of other older populations that need multiple forms of care.
OBJECTIVES: To identify the barriers, facilitators, and potential better practices to achieving physician-system alignment. METHODS: Interviews using a semi-structured, open-ended protocol were conducted during a total of 18 site visits, each usually 2 days in length, covering multiple topics of physician group-system alignment. Interviews were conducted with members of the target physician group, key leaders of the health care system, and representatives of physicians not in the target group. The summary of the interviews for each of the site visits was analyzed to determine barriers, facilitators, and better practices for achieving more effective relationships between physician groups and health care systems. RESULTS: A number of barriers to more effective relationships between physician groups and health systems were identified. Barriers related to environment, culture, and information systems were most prevalent. Other major general areas of barriers encountered were physician leadership, group-system relationship, compensation and productivity, care management practices, group strategy, and accountability. Examples of practices that may help to resolve some of these issues were also identified. CONCLUSIONS: Physician-system relationships can and do cause problems for improving health care. The evidence from the conducted site visits suggests that specific strategies may help improve these relationships but more research is needed in order assess the actual impact of these strategies.
Read moreThe Great Depression of the 1930s and the Great Credit Crisis of the 2000s had similar causes but elicited strikingly different policy responses. While it remains too early to assess the effectiveness of current policy, it is possible to analyse monetary and fiscal responses in the 1930s as a natural experiment or counterfactual capable of shedding light on the impact of current policies. We employ vector autoregressions, instrumental variables, and qualitative evidence for 27 countries in the period 1925–39. The results suggest that monetary and fiscal stimulus was effective -- that where it did not make a difference it was not tried. They shed light on the debate over fiscal multipliers in episodes of financial crisis. They are consistent with multipliers at the higher end of those estimated in the recent literature, and with the argument that the impact of fiscal stimulus will be greater when banking systems are dysfunctional and monetary policy is constrained by the zero bound.— Miguel Almunia, Agustín Bénétrix, Barry Eichengreen, Kevin H. O’Rourke and Gisela Rua
Read moreThe Global Credit Crisis of 2008-09 has underscored the urgency of reforming the international financial architecture.While a number of short-term reforms are already in train, this paper contemplates more ambitious reforms of the international financial architecture that might be implemented over the next ten years.It proposes routinizing the expansion of IMF quotas and the conduct of exchange rate surveillance.It contemplates an expanded role for the SDR in international transactions, which would require someone-like the IMF-to act as market maker.It considers proposals for reimposing Glass-Steagall-like restrictions on commercial and investment banking, something that will have to be coordinated internationally to be feasible.Other proposals would require banks to purchase capital insurance; here the question is who would be on the other side of the market.Again there is likely to be a role for the IMF.Then there are arguments for a new agency or institution to deal with cross-border bank insolvencies.Any such entity will require staff support, which might plausibly come from the Fund.Finally, some insist that international colleges of regulators are not enough-that it is desirable to create a World Financial Organization (WFO) with the power to sanction members whose national regulatory policies are not up to international standards.A WFO will similarly need staff support, of which the IMF would be one possible source.All this of course presupposes meaningful IMF governance reform so that the institution has the legitimacy and efficiency to assume these additional responsibilities.The paper therefore concludes with some conventional and unconventional proposals for IMF governance reform.
Read moreScreening the volatiles of cempedak [<i>Artocarpus integer</i> (Thunb.) Merr.] pulp for odor-active compounds by aroma extract dilution analysis and gas chromatography (GC)-olfactometry of static headspace samples revealed a total of 55 odorants, among which 47 were identified. Using stable isotopically substituted odorants as internal standards, these compounds were quantitated by GC-mass spectrometry, and odor activity values (OAVs) were calculated as ratios of the natural concentrations in cempedak pulp to the orthonasal odor detection thresholds. An aroma reconstitution model based on the 41 compounds with OAVs >1 in their natural concentrations successfully mimicked the characteristic aroma of cempedak pulp including the pronounced sulfury, oniony note which is intense in cempedak pulp but absent in jackfruit pulp. Further sensory tests finally showed that 2-(methylsulfanyl)propane, 2-(methylsulfanyl)butane, and 2-(methylsulfanyl)pentane are the key compounds responsible for this unique aroma note in cempedak pulp and vitally contribute to the aroma difference between cempedak pulp and jackfruit pulp.
Read moreThe Great Recession that started in 2008 has drawn constant comparisons with the Great Depression that unfolded in 1929. This paper documents how the response of policy makers in the current episode has been markedly different from the one observed in the 1920s and 1930s and to what extent this different behavior has followed the lessons from the historical analysis of the Great Depression. The historical account is also used to discuss probable changes to the world´s economic landscape regarding both trade and financial globalization.
Read moreThis article describes a model of CQI that is designed to characterize the elements necessary for successfully improving quality at an organization-wide level; describe and understand the organizational dynamics in implementing an organization-wide effort; and aid in diagnosing and solving common implementation challenges. Three cases illustrate the model and how it can be used.
Read moreEichengreen Barry. L’euro et la Banque centrale europeenne en 2019 . In: Revue d'economie financiere, n°96, 2010. L'euro en 2019. pp. 39-44.
Read moreHere, we demonstrate self-powered ultraviolet photodetectors that are capable of generating opposite current flow when illuminated at different wavelengths. The photodetectors are composed of n-ZnO/Polyaniline (PANI) p-n and PANI/ZnGa2O4 type-II heterojunctions and operate without any need for external power source. Devices display superior stability in ambient conditions within months. Results provide opportunities for developing devices for optical recognition.
Read moreBackground: Building on concepts from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), this paper proposes an overarching social science framework for addressing the fragmentation that exists in health and social care systems worldwide. The focus is on how relational networks might be strengthened to deliver more coordinated, integrated, whole person-centered care. The framework examines a major planned social experiment occurring in New South Wales, Australia: “All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly” (ALICE). Approach: Existing research on integrated care has largely focused on structural elements of care with mixed results (Goodwin, 2004; Burns et al., 2022). This approach has largely ignored the complex, emergent, ever-changing relational dynamics of how care is delivered. To address this gap, we merge social network theory (Granovetter, 1973; Kadushin, 2022) and relational coordination theory (Gittell and Weiss, 2004) to develop a relational network theory that addresses the complex ecosystem of health and social care delivery. Network ties involving strength, centrality, density, embeddedness, and structural holes are made “social” by the extent to which the network actors share common goals, trust, mutual respect, and engage in frequent, specific, accurate, and problem-focused communication. These relational processes both influence and are influenced by the structural network properties and impact outcomes. ALICE is an emerging, neighborhood-based, relational model of care for older people on the Central Coast of New South Wales. Traditionally, healthcare for older people has been complex, fragmented and not focused on social needs. A Relational Network Theory (RNT) framework highlights three core principles of ALICE: 1) the promotion of integrated care delivery through the use of “link workers” who conduct holistic care assessments and coordinate access to care across providers; 2) the development of integrated care communities that leverage social connections and networks through use of kiosks and community engagement officers to support older person care; and 3) a commitment to healthy place-making with local governance and engagement forums to create healthy built and natural environments to support older people in living heathy and active lives. Results: The ALICE initiative has been co-designed with residents and stakeholders from different sectors to implement an agile approach that will work in different community contexts. This is a foundational step in spreading and scaling outcomes. The relational work in creating new roles (linkage staff, engagement officers) is building the required connections and trust to meet the whole-person needs of older people. A key finding is the need to assess and map the complex social and relational network properties carefully to facilitate successful spread and sustainability. Implications: Two important implications for providers, managers, and policymakers are: 1) Recognize health and social care delivery as a complex adaptive system (CAS). 2) Co-design new care models following a framework of Relational Network Theory (RNT), building social reciprocity among all actors to reduce the current fragmentation and promote more socially connected care.
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