Abstract The presumed dominance of “original discovery” over replication is an anomaly. Original discovery has more value than replication primarily when scientific investigation can immediately generate numerous discoveries most of which are true and accurate. This scenario is uncommon. A model shows how original discovery claims typically have small or even negative value. Science becomes worthy mostly because of replication.
Nicholas J. Timpson, André G. Uitterlinden, Paolo Vineis, Nicholas J. Wareham, Deborah M. Winn, Ron Zimmern, John P. A. Ioannidis, Daniela Seminara, Muin J. Khoury, Thomas R. O Brien, Teri A. Manolio, Marta Gwinn, Julian Little, Julian P. T. Higgins, Jonine L. Bernstein, Paolo Boffetta, Melissa L. Bondy, Molly S. Bray, Paul Brenchley, Patricia A. Buffler, Juan P. Casas, Anand P. Chokkalingam, John Danesh, George Davey Smith, Siobhan M. Dolan, Ross Duncan, Nelleke A. Gruis, Mia Hashibe, David J. Hunter, Paul M Ridker, Beatrice Malmer, Demetrius M. Maraganore, ,
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