Significance As flames spread through forests, buildings, or other complex environments, they can erupt, unexpectedly, into fast-moving conflagrations. This study presents evidence that characteristic patterns in the behavior of spreading flames may indicate when such eruptions are likely to occur. Our results rely on the detection of a phenomenon termed “critical slowing down”—the slowed recovery of multistable systems from perturbations as those systems approach tipping points. Using a bistable combustion system in which flames propagate either as small, slowly moving flames, or as large, rapidly moving flames stabilized by feedback between wind and fire, we provide evidence that slowing responses of spreading flames to sudden changes in environment (e.g., wind, terrain) may anticipate the onset of intense, feedback-stabilized modes of propagation.
Ingrid A. van de Leemput, Marieke Wichers, Angélique O. J. Cramer, Denny Borsboom, Francis Tuerlinckx, Peter Kuppens, Egbert H. van Nes, Wolfgang Viechtbauer, Erik J. Giltay, Steven H. Aggen, Cathérine Derom, Nele Jacobs, Kenneth S. Kendler, Han L. J. van der Maas, Michael C. Neale, Frenk Peeters, Evert Thiery, Peter Zachar, Marten Scheffer
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