Vehicle kinematics ahead prediction for localized impact by the means of autoregressive model with exogenous input

In this paper we present the application of regressive models to simulation of a full-scale vehicle-to-pole impact. The capability of an ARMAX model to reproduce vehicle kinematics was examined. Regressive model parameters were established by minimizing a weighted sum of squares of prediction errors. The prediction horizon was assigned to evaluate model's robustness and verify its time series data forecasting performance. It was found that the ARMAX model reproduces the signal which was used for its establishment (i.e. real vehicle's acceleration). Moreover, such estimation technique preserves all characteristic information relevant for a given collision, since integration of the estimated acceleration pulse yields plots of velocity and displacement which closely follow the reference ones.