The Effects of Neighbourhood Offender Concentrations on the Number, Type and Location of Crimes Committed by Resident Offenders

This paper examines whether criminals commit more crimes when living among other offenders. We estimate a fixed-effect, negative binomial model of individual reoffending using a quarterly panel data set across a decade for 693 neighbourhoods in Glasgow, which provides plausibly causal relationships. The concentration of recently active offenders has positive effects upon the subsequent number of property and violent crimes committed by resident offenders both inside and outside the neighbourhood. The concentration of young males also has a positive effect upon both crime types in both locations. Further understanding of peer influences by crime type and location, and of the effects of offender concentrations on processes of social control are required. The deconcentration of offenders is justified on social equity grounds.