The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU Study: Identification of Factors to Predict the Risk of Intubation and Mortality in Patients with Severe COVID-19

In some patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection induces cytokine storm, hypercoagulability and endothelial cell activation leading to worsening of COVID-19, intubation and death. Prompt identification of patients at risk of intubation is an urgent need. Objectives. To derive a prognostic score for the risk of intubation or death in patients with COVID-19 admitted in intensive care unit (ICU), by assessing biomarkers of hypercoagulability, endothelial cell activation and inflammation and a large panel of clinical analytes. Design, Setting and Participants. A prospective, observational study enrolled 118 patients with COVID-19 admitted in the ICU. On the first day of ICU admission, all patients were assessed for biomarkers (protein C, protein S, antithrombin, D-Dimer, fibrin monomers, FVIIa, FV, FXII, FXII, FVIII, FvW antigen, fibrinogen, procoagulant phospholipid dependent clotting time, TFPI, thrombomodulin, P-selectin, heparinase, microparticles exposing TF, IL-6, complement C3a, C5a, thrombin generation, PT, aPTT, hemogram, platelet count) and clinical predictors. Main Outcomes and Measures. The clinical outcomes were intubation and mortality during hospitalization in ICU. Results: The intubation and mortality rates were 70% and 18%, respectively. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU score composed of P-Selectin, D-Dimer, free TFPI, TF activity, IL-6 and FXII, age and duration of hospitalization predicted the risk of intubation or death with high sensitivity and specificity (0.90 and 0.92, respectively). Conclusions and Relevance. COVID-19 is related to severe endothelial cell activation and hypercoagulability orchestrated in the context of inflammation. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU risk assessment model is accurate for the evaluation of the risk of mechanical ventilation and death in patients with critical COVID-19. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU score is feasible in tertiary hospitals and could be placed in the diagnostic procedure of personalized medical management and prompt therapeutic intervention.