Subjective Probabilities to Integrate Uncertainties in Levee Performance Assessment

Levee risk control is crucial. Regrettably, these long linear structures are badly maintained most of the time, showing signs of weaknesses on numerous occasions. Only imperfect information is usually available. In this particular context, a probability-based model is suggested for evaluating the levee performance, taking into account expert engineer's uncertain assessments in a probabilistic format. After a brief presentation of the development of a levee deterministic performance evaluation model, we describe in greater details an original approach based on subjective probability implemented to take into account uncertain levee performance assessments and the use of sensitive coefficient for decision aid.