Reproducibility in the UK Biobank of Genome-Wide Significant Signals Discovered in Earlier Genome-Wide Association Studies

Abstract With the establishment of large biobanks, discovery of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) associated with various phenotypes has accelerated. An open question is whether genome-wide significant SNPs identified in earlier genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are replicated in later GWAS conducted in biobanks. To address this, we examined a publicly available GWAS database and identified two, independent GWAS on the same phenotype (an earlier, “discovery” GWAS and a later, “replication” GWAS done in UK biobank). The analysis evaluated 136,318,924 SNPs (of which 6,289 reached p<5e-8 in the discovery GWAS) from 4,397,962 participants across nine phenotypes. The overall replication rate was 85.0%; although lower for binary than quantitative phenotypes (58.1% versus 94.8% respectively). There was a 18.0% decrease in SNP effect size for binary phenotypes, but a 12.0% increase for quantitative phenotypes. Using the discovery SNP effect size, phenotype trait (binary or quantitative), and discovery p-value, we built and validated a model that predicted SNP replication with area under the Receiver Operator Curve = 0.90. While non-replication may reflect lack of power rather than genuine false-positives, these results provide insights about which discovered associations are likely to be replicated across subsequent GWAS.