Probabilistic models for steel corrosion loss and pitting of marine infrastructure

With the increasing emphasis on attempting to retain in service ageing infrastructure models for the description and prediction of corrosion losses and for maximum pit depth are of increasing interest. In most cases assessment and prediction will be done in a probabilistic risk assessment framework and this then requires probabilistic corrosion models. Recently, novel models for corrosion loss and maximum pit depth under marine immersion conditions have been developed. The models show that both corrosion loss and pit depth progress in a non-linear fashion with increased exposure time and do so in a non-monotonic manner as a result of the controlling corrosion process changing from oxidation to being influenced by bacterial action. For engineers the importance of this lies in the fact that conventional ‘corrosion rates’ have no validity, particularly for the long-term corrosion effects as relevant to deteriorated infrastructure. The models are consistent with corrosion science principles as well as current understanding of the considerable influence of bacterial processes on corrosion loss and pitting. The considerable practical implications of this are described.