Probabilistic Mapping of Stability and Reliability in Microgrids – A Bayesian Interpretation

Stability and reliability are vital performance metrics for microgrid systems, while their interdependency on each other has not been well addressed. This paper thereby explains the relationships between them from a conditional perspective using the Bayesian inference, where the observed stability performance influences the evaluation of system reliability. A DC-AC converter system considering the degradation of filter capacitors is exemplified to illustrate the reliability under stability conditions, with simulation and experimental results provided in order to demonstrate the basic idea.