Prevalence, incidence and mortality of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy based on a population cohort of 21.9 million in China

Abstract There are limited studies on the prevalence and incidence of clinically diagnosed hypertrophic myocardiopathy (HCM) and its mortality in the Chinese population, and the projected population burden of HCM over the next decades. We collected data on HCM and its mortality from the Beijing Municipal Health Commission Information Center (BMHCIC) database and estimated the prevalence and incidence based on the whole Beijing population. Calculation of population trends was performed using annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Finally, future HCM incidence was built by modelling projection of HCM to the next decades using Poisson regression analysis and Gray Model 1,1(GM [1,1]). The prevalence of HCM was 0.0069% (95%CI, 0.0065–0.0072%; N = 1343) in 2010, rising to 0.076% (95% CI, 0.074–0.077%; N = 16,616) in 2019, and the incidence of HCM was 6.85 per 100 000 person-year in 2010, rising to 11.76 per 100 000 person-year in 2019. Males had higher prevalence and incidence of HCM than females. The APPC for the rising incidence of HCM was 5.8% and the expected numbers will double increase in 2029 by assuming the same increase trend as the last decades. HCM had increased annual incidence of HF (APPC: 8.4, 4.4–12.6, p < 0.05), and relatively stable annual incidence of mortality (APPC: 1.2%, − 2.3% to 4.8%, p > 0.05) during the studied period. Males had lower mortality (2.70% vs. 4.20%, p < 0.001) than females. The calculated HCM prevalence was much lower compared to prior screening studies from 2004, although the predicted HCM incidence would double over the next decades. HCM was associated with a stable risk of mortality during the studied period.