PDF | An economic feasibility study should consider parameters and uncertainties inherent in a project to produce consistent economic results, providing the investor a decision-making tool. This study aimed initially to carry out the conventional economic evaluation of the realistic scenario in the Mineração Megaípe Eireli, located in Pernambuco, whose Net Present Value (NPV) obtained was R$ 24,006,309.20, which represents a positive result. Through Monte Carlo methodology, a risk analysis was performed, considering uncertainties in 100,000 scenarios, in which nine variables assumed stochastic values within the defined domains, thus producing a statistical distribution of NPV instead of a single number, when a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify and quantify the variables that most impact the evaluation result. Finally, the two most influential factors identified in the initial sensitivity analysis were isolated and subjected to a new risk analysis in another 100,000 scenarios. It was concluded that the project is economically feasible and that the probability of generating profit for investors is 99.77%, although the probability of NPV being equal to or greater than that predicted by the conventional method is 49.98%.
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