Predicting long-term corrosion of metal alloys in physical infrastructure

The conditions for initiation and the subsequent development of the severity of corrosion of metal alloys in the short term continue to be of research interest. However, for most physical infrastructure the critical issue often is the development and progression of corrosion under some level of oxygenated conditions, over several decades. In many cases this has significant implications for safety and for economic loss. Increasingly, asset management decision-making requires robust tools or models to predict the effect of corrosion, including loss, pit depth and crevice severity. The present capability in this area is reviewed and available models generally compared, including their degree of empiricism and their relationship to corrosion science fundamentals. It is argued that in addition to the role of material imperfections and corrosion products, the immediate physical environment adjacent to the metal alloy also can play a major role. These aspects are explored and some speculation made about required future research directions.