Precision Nomothetic Medicine in Depression Research: A New Depression Model, and New Endophenotype Classes and Pathway Phenotypes, and A Digital Self

Machine learning approaches, such as soft independent modeling of class analogy (SIMCA) and pathway analysis, were introduced in depression research in the 1990s (Maes et al.) to construct neuroimmune endophenotype classes. The goal of this paper is to examine the promise of precision psychiatry to use information about a depressed person's own pan-omics, environmental, and lifestyle data, or to tailor preventative measures and medical treatments to endophenotype subgroups of depressed patients in order to achieve the best clinical outcome for each individual. Three steps are emerging in precision medicine: (1) the optimization and refining of classical models and constructing digital twins; (2) the use of precision medicine to construct endophenotype classes and pathway phenotypes, and (3) constructing a digital self of each patient. The root cause of why precision psychiatry cannot develop into true sciences is that there is no correct (cross-validated and reliable) model of clinical depression as a serious medical disorder discriminating it from a normal emotional distress response including sadness, grief and demoralization. Here, we explain how we used (un)supervised machine learning such as partial least squares path analysis, SIMCA and factor analysis to construct (a) a new precision depression model; (b) a new endophenotype class, namely major dysmood disorder (MDMD), which is a nosological class defined by severe symptoms and neuro-oxidative toxicity; and a new pathway phenotype, namely the reoccurrence of illness (ROI) index, which is a latent vector extracted from staging characteristics (number of depression and manic episodes and suicide attempts), and (c) an ideocratic profile with personalized scores based on all MDMD features.