Performance evaluation of rock fragmentation prediction based on RF‐BOA, AdaBoost‐BOA, GBoost‐BOA, and ERT‐BOA hybrid models

Abstract Rock fragmentation is an important indicator for assessing the quality of blasting operations. However, accurate prediction of rock fragmentation after blasting is challenging due to the complicated blasting parameters and rock properties. For this reason, optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA), four hybrid machine learning models, including random forest, adaptive boosting, gradient boosting, and extremely randomized trees, were developed in this study. A total of 102 data sets with seven input parameters (spacing‐to‐burden ratio, hole depth‐to‐burden ratio, burden‐to‐hole diameter ratio, stemming length‐to‐burden ratio, powder factor, in situ block size, and elastic modulus) and one output parameter (rock fragment mean size, X 50 ) were adopted to train and validate the predictive models. The root mean square error ( RMSE ), the mean absolute error ( MAE ), and the coefficient of determination () were used as the evaluation metrics. The evaluation results demonstrated that the hybrid models showed superior performance than the standalone models. The hybrid model consisting of gradient boosting and BOA (GBoost‐BOA) achieved the best prediction results compared with the other hybrid models, with the highest R 2 value of 0.96 and the smallest values of RMSE and MAE of 0.03 and 0.02, respectively. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the effects of input variables on rock fragmentation. In situ block size ( X B ), elastic modulus ( E ), and stemming length‐to‐burden ratio ( T/B ) were set as the main influencing factors. The proposed hybrid model provided a reliable prediction result and thus could be considered an alternative approach for rock fragment prediction in mining engineering.