On flipping coins and making technology choices: Luck as an explanation of technological foresight and oversight

The ad was unusually bold for the Wall Street Journal. The headline read, "A Chance to Earn Big Bucks." The fine print went on to describe a contest to be held the next week at a large auditorium in New York City. The contest was going to be simple one, with simple rules. Upon arrival, each contestant would be given a quarter. In the first round of the contest, all contestants would flip their coins. Contestants who flipped a "head" would continue in the contest; those who flipped a "tail" would be eliminated. The contest would continue through a series of coin flipping rounds, until there was only one person left. This person would then collect all the quarters from all the contestants. To ensure that there would be a single winner, if all those in the contest flipped "tails" in a particular round, they would all be allowed to continue in the contest. The ad described only one requirement for those seeking to enter this contest: they must be either highly educated, or have a great deal of experience, in the management of technology.