Mountain Entrepreneurship in Commerce: Challenges and Opportunities. European Mountain Series Forecasting (5)

Mountain entrepreneurship in trade faces specific challenges in mountainous regions, characterized by limited accessibility, poor infrastructure, and economic volatility. This sector plays a crucial role in local economic development, having a significant impact on employment and the preservation of local traditions. The article examines the performance of forecasting models used to estimate relevant economic indicators, such as the birth and death rates of businesses, the survival rate, and the impact on forced employment. The data used comes from official sources, and the analysis relies on advanced statistical techniques (RMSE, MAPE, MAE, etc.). The evaluated indicators reflected both the dynamics of mountain businesses and developments in the workforce. The results showed significant economic fluctuations, with notable forecast errors due to market instability and external conditions such as tax changes and natural conditions. The forecasting models demonstrated greater accuracy regarding long-term employment, and some mountainous regions presented significant opportunities for rapidly growing businesses. Despite the forecasting errors, the analysis provides valuable insights into understanding the economic dynamics of mountain entrepreneurship.