Links and broken chains: evidence of human-caused changes in land cover in remotely sensed images

Land use intensification on shrinking forage resources characterizes many livestock producing communities. Remotely sensed images can show land cover change, but how household decision making is reflected in images had not been synthesized. For eight areas in the US, Africa, and Mongolia (>340,000km2), we ranked constraints in decision making, and quantified vegetation greenness trends from 1981 to 2004 and land cover change using 1990 and 2000 Landsat images. Constraints in decision making varied across the sites, but ecological settings ranked highest. Five sites showed increasing greenness (2.4–8.0% increase per decade; P ≤0.01); the African sites showed no change or declining greenness (−2.5%; P =0.048). Land cover change in the US sites was modest, with most sites suitable for cultivation already converted by 1990. Cover change was minor in Mongolia, despite profound changes in government and economy. The Kenyan site showed the largest change in land cover. We hypothesize a humped relationship, where households in undeveloped regions lack the resources to convert land cover. Developed regions have reached some stasis in land use. Developing regions with high human population growth and residents with access to machinery show the greatest land cover change.