Judgment, Choice and Societal Risk Taking

Decisions about societal risks require high-level thinking and reasoning on the part of both experts and the public. They require an appreciation of the probabilistic nature of the world and the ability to think intelligently about low-probability events. Nuclear power is frightening because it has the dubious distinction of scoring high on many characteristics that heighten anxiety and stimulate aversion to risk. The risk-benefit conflicts starkly posed by gambles trigger anxiety. One way to counter this anxiety is to deny the uncertainty, to deny that life is a gamble, to view the world as perfectly safe--or at least safe enough so that we don't need to worry about the risk. Although the study of individual human minds is a rather narrow starting point for examining societal risk taking, it appears to lead quickly to important issues that need to be addressed by the entire community of scientists, policy makers, and public citizens.