International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) for Waldenstrom’s Macroglobulinemia (WM).

Abstract The outcome of patients (pts) with WM, a rare B-cell malignancy, varies widely. The international community has convened a panel to develop a prognostically meaningful staging system for survival after treatment initiation. Toward establishing IPSS, we performed multivariate analyses with bootstrap validation in a series of 587 pts (median age 67, range: 28 to 95, M/F ratio: 1.7) diagnosed between September 1979 and December 2001. Diagnostic and treatment criteria fulfilled recommendations of the 2nd international WM workshop. Front-line treatment was initiated at diagnosis in 69% and 4 mo to 164 mo later in the remaining pts. Criteria for initiation of therapy included cytopenia, constitutional symptoms, organomegaly, hyperviscosity, IgM-related disorders, which pertained to 51%, 44%, 35%, 31% and 13%, respectively. Treatment regimens comprised alkylating agents, fludarabine and rituximab in 369, 195 and 23 subjects, respectively. Baseline parameters included age>65 yr in 57%, Hb≤11.5 g/dL in 65%, platelet count ≤100 x109/L in 9%, granulocyte count ≤1.5 x109/L in 9%, B2M >3 mg/L in 56%, albumin ≤3.5 g/dL in 36% and monoclonal protein >7.0 g/dL in 7%. With a median follow-up of 64 mo (range, 6 mo–182 mo), the median survival after treatment initiation was 87 mo (95%CI 79–103) regardless of the type of therapy applied (p=0.3). Using results of univariate survival analyses, recursive partitioning and martingale residuals analyses, 7 adverse characteristics for inclusion in multivariate analyses were identified during an expert meeting: age >65 yr, platelet count ≤ 100x109/L, B2M >3 mg/L, M-protein >7.0 g/dL, granulocytes ≤1.5 x109/L, Hb ≤11.5 g/dL and albumin ≤3.5 g/dL. The Cox proportional hazard model with stepwise selection selected the first 6 covariates. Bootstrap resampling (500 replicates) validated the selection of the first 4 covariates in at least 80% of the replicates. Selection of at least one of the last 2 covariates in more than 80% of the replicates indicated a correlation between these 2 covariates, and validated the inclusion of Hb only. Using the combination of age, Hb, platelet count, B2M and M-protein, low risk was defined by the presence of ≤1 adverse characteristic except age, high risk by the presence of >2 adverse characteristics; the remaining patients with 2 adverse characteristics or age >65yr had intermediate risk, comprising 27%, 38% and 35% of patients with 5-yr survival rates of 87%, 68% and 36% (p<0.0001), independent of treatment and age. IPSS split each subgroup identified by previous scoring systems (Morel, Merlini, Dhodapkar). Conversely, log-rank test was significant only when the latter prognostic system was assessed in low IPSS-risk pts. Thus the combination of age, B2M, M-protein and blood counts provides simple prognostic model for survival in WM, hopefully serving as an objective basis for initiation of therapy and comparison of treatment results.