Identifying neighborhood thresholds: An empirical exploration

In this article, we investigate the threshold‐like effects of four aspects of neighborhood environment: poverty rate, adult nonemployment rate, female headship rate for families with children, and secondary school dropout rate. We used a sample consisting of virtually all census tracts from U.S. metropolitan areas. The relationship between the value of numerous neighborhood indicators in 1980 and subsequent changes in each of the four dimensions of neighborhood quality of family life from 1980 to 1990 was evaluated statistically using a regression model with a spline specification to test for nonlinear, threshold‐like processes. Stressing the exploratory nature of the study, we find evidence of threshold‐like effects in an endodynamic relationship (poverty rate and subsequent changes in that rate), and in exodynamic relationships (occupational status and rental rates and subsequent changes in several neighborhood quality indicators). Implications for research and a spatially targeted neighborhood reinvestment policy are derived from the analysis.