Human fatigue in a ship bridge management team—a Bayesian approach

The article introduces a general method for developing a Bayesian Network (BN) for modelling human fatigue at sea. A BN of human fatigue in the bridge management team is proposed. The qualitative part of the BN has been structured based on modifying the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The quantitative part is based upon correlation analysis of fatigue—related factors identified from 93 accident investigation reports. The probability of human fatigue amongst the ship's bridge personnel is calculated to be 0,23. The strongest fatigue—related factors related to top management are vessel certifications, manning resources, and quality control.