Heat wave vulnerability classification of residential buildings

General circulation models of climate change predict that the intensity and frequency of heat waves will increase, which are a significant threat to public health (Luber and McGeehin 2008). The effect of heat waves on the public health became apparent during the 2003 heat wave in France, where almost 15,000 heat related deaths (excess of 60%) were reported (Pirard et al. 2005). Between 1,000 and 2,200 heat related excess deaths were reported in the Netherlands (Fischera et al. 2004, Garssen et al. 2005). The total heat related excess mortality across Europe was more than 50,000 (Brucker 2005, Kosatsky 2005). In this study, a first heat wave vulnerability classification for overheating is made of four Dutch residential building types, using historical climate data of five heat-waves in the Netherlands. The four evaluated building types are Terraced houses, Corner houses, Detached houses and SemiDetached houses, of which the geometry was based on the Dutch reference buildings (SenterNovem 2006). Apart from these four building types, ten other variables/uncertainties such as building orientation, ventilation rate, Rc-values and window areas were taken into account using Monte Carlo analysis. For this analysis, 400 cases were generated for each building type using random Latin Hypercube sampling. From this analysis a first classification was made, which from most to least vulnerable was: (1) Detached house, (2) Corner house, (3) Semi-detached house, (4) Terraced House.