Genomic science of risk prediction for venous thromboembolic disease: convenient clarification or compounding complexity

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) refers to abnormal blood clots in veins occurring in 1 to 2 per 1000 individuals every year. While anticoagulant treatment can prevent VTE, it increases the risk of bleeding. This emphasizes the importance of identifying individuals with a high risk of VTE and providing prophylactic interventions to these individuals to reduce both VTE and bleeding risks. Current risk assessment of VTE is based on the combination of mainly clinical risk factors. With the identification of an increasing number of genetic variants associated with the risk of VTE, the addition of genetic findings to clinical prediction models can improve risk prediction for VTE. Especially for individuals in high-risk situations, the added value of genetic findings to clinical prediction models may have benefits such as better prophylaxis of VTE and the reduced side effects of bleeding from unnecessary treatment. Nevertheless, the question of whether these models will eventually have clinical utility remains to be proven. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on genetic risk factors for VTE, explore genetic prediction models for VTE, and discuss their clinical implications and challenges.