Evaluation of soil moisture from CCAM-CABLE simulation, satellite-based models estimates and satellite observations: a case study of Skukuza and Malopeni flux towers

Abstract. Reliable estimates of daily, monthly and seasonal soil moisture are useful in a variety of disciplines. The availability of continuous in situ soil moisture observations in southern Africa barely exists; hence, process-based simulation model outputs are a valuable source of climate information, needed for guiding farming practices and policy interventions at various spatio-temporal scales. The aim of this study is to evaluate soil moisture outputs from simulated and satellite-based soil moisture products, and to compare modelled soil moisture across different landscapes. The simulation model consists of a global circulation model known as the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM), coupled with the CSIRO Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange model (CABLE). The satellite-based soil moisture data products include satellite observations from the European Space Agency (ESA) and satellite-observation-based model estimates from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). The evaluation is done for both the surface (0–10 cm) and root zone (10–100 cm) using in situ soil moisture measurements collected from two study sites. The results indicate that both the simulation- and satellite-derived models produce outputs that are higher in magnitude range compared to in situ soil moisture observations at the two study sites, especially at the surface. The correlation coefficient ranges from 0.7 to 0.8 (at the root zone) and 0.7 to 0.9 (at the surface), suggesting that models mostly are in an acceptable phase agreement at the surface than at the root zone, and this was further confirmed by the root mean squared error and the standard deviation values. The models mostly show a bias towards overestimation of the observed soil moisture at both the surface and root zone, with the CCAM-CABLE showing the least bias. An analysis evaluating phase agreement using the cross-wavelet analysis has shown that, despite the models' outputs being in phase with the in situ observations, there are time lags in some instances. An analysis of soil moisture mutual information (MI) between CCAM-CABLE and the GLEAM models has successfully revealed that both the simulation and model estimates have a high MI at the root zone as opposed to the surface. The MI mostly ranges between 0.5 and 1.5 at both the surface and root zone. The MI is predominantly high for low-lying relative to high-lying areas.