Effects of environmental changes on soil respiration in arid, cold, temperate, and tropical zones

Soil respiration (Rs) is projected to be substantially affected by climate change, impacting the storage, equilibrium, and movement of terrestrial carbon (C). However, uncertainties surrounding the responses of Rs to climate change and soil nitrogen (N) enrichment are linked to mechanisms specific to diverse climate zones. A comprehensive meta-analysis was conducted to address this, evaluating the global effects of warming, increased precipitation, and N enrichment on Rs across various climate zones and ecosystems. Data from 123 studies, encompassing a total of 10,377 worldwide observations, were synthesized for this purpose. Annual Rs were modeled and their uncertainties were associated with a 1-km2 resolution global Rs database spanning from 1961 to 2022. Calibrating Rs using ensemble machine learning (EML) and employing 10-fold cross-validation, 13 environmental covariates were utilized. The meta-analysis findings revealed an upsurge in Rs rates in response to warming, with tropical, arid, and temperate climate zones exhibiting increases of 12 %, 13 %, and 16 %, respectively. Furthermore, increased precipitation led to stimulated Rs rates of 11 % and 9 % in tropical and temperate zones, respectively, while N deposition affected Rs in cold (+6 %) and tropical (+5 %) climate zones. The machine learning technique estimated the global soil respiration to range from 91 to 171 Pg C yr−1, with an average Rs of 700 ± 300 g C m−2 yr−1. The values ranged between 314 and 2500 g C m−2 yr−1, with the lowest and highest values observed in cold and tropical zones, respectively. Spatial variation in Rs was most pronounced in low-latitude areas, particularly in tropical rainforests and monsoon zones. Temperature, precipitation, and N deposition were identified as crucial environmental factors exerting significant influences on Rs rates worldwide. These factors underscore the interconnectedness between climate and ecosystem processes, therefore requiring explicit considerations of different climate zones when assessing responses of Rs to global change.