Dynamic Model Predicting Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Prevalence Trends

Objective To model known multiple population parameters associated with changes in the prevalence of body mass index (BMI) classes (overweight, obese, and extremely obese) and to establish the necessary conditions under which the prevalence of obesity will eventually plateau. Methods A six differential equation system was developed that predicts population‐wide obesity prevalence trends. The model considers both social and non‐social influences on weight gain, incorporates other known parameters affecting obesity trends, and allows for country specific population growth. Long‐term obesity trends were calculated after input of parameters specific to the US. Results The dynamic model predicts that the prevalence at which obesity plateaus in a population is primarily a function of birth rate and the probability of being born in an obesogenic environment; that obesity prevalence will eventually plateau independent of current prevention strategies if key population‐specific parameters such as birth rate remain constant; and that the US prevalence of obesity, overweight, and extreme obesity will plateau by about 2030 at 28%, 32%, and 9%, respectively. Conclusions The US prevalence of obesity is tapering off and will plateau in less than two decades, independent of current preventative strategies. This trend has important implications in accurately evaluating the impact of various anti‐obesity strategies aimed at reducing the national obesity prevalence.