Dam ageing diagnosis and risk analysis: Development of methods to support expert judgment

Diagnosis and risk analysis are essential to ensure the safety of dams. Dam specialist engineers have useful methods available to help them in their task: physical modelling for assessing dam stability, statistical analysis of dam monitoring data, and, more recently, functional modelling for operational safety analysis. However, an expert's judgment is necessary when the works are complex and unique, when data are imprecise or insufficient, and when preliminary diagnosis or detailed analysis are being made. Using their experience and knowledge, dam specialist engineers are able to provide recommendations to address specific problems. The authors propose methods to support expert diagnosis and risk analysis that capitalize on the expert's knowledge and feedback. Their approach is threefold: (i) an ageing functional model based on the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method using a causal graph representation of ageing scenarios leading to loss of functions; (ii) a qualitative method of describing dam ageing historical data and representing trends in performance loss; and (iii) qualitative methods to assess the risk of performance loss of dams and their components. In terms of practical applications, our research has produced a knowledge database on dam mechanisms. Also, an ageing historical database was compiled from dams that have experienced deterioration. Finally, we are developing computer aids to assist engineers in diagnosis and risk analysis tasks.Key words: dam, diagnosis, risk analysis, ageing, criticality.