Climate Change Analysis of Precipitation and Mean Temperature in Jammu and Kashmir, India

In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess and understand the hydrologic variable trends, that is, rainfall and mean temperature for the state of Jammu and Kashmir, India on monthly, annual, and seasonal basis. Past (1901–2002) and future (2016–2099) trends of hydrologic variables were studied for 14 meteorological stations, that is, for past trend and 18 CMIP5-CCSM4 grid stations, that is, for future trend in Jammu and Kashmir. Mann–Kendall (MK) test and modified MK (MMK) test were employed to identify monotonic trend magnitude as well as direction of temporal change on monthly, seasonal, and annual basis. Further, CMIP5-based CCSM4 climate system model was used for future trend detection with representative concentration pathways scenarios of RCP 4.5 for mean temperature and RCP 8.5 for precipitation. The spatial distribution of trends was explored by interpolating the value of each station using Arc-GIS toolboxes on annual, seasonal, and monthly basis. Rising trends in precipitation and mean temperature were found for annual, premonsoon, and postmonsoon (precipitation) and for annual, premonsoon, postmonsoon, and winter (mean temperature) in Jammu and Kashmir during 1901–2002. The study also concludes that the precipitation and mean 318temperature is going to rise in future decades to come which will surely impact the hydrology, hydraulics, and the ecology of Dal Lake and its periphery. It is also estimated that the intense rainfall events induced flood scenarios is going to elevate drastically, subsequently conveying more sediment to Dal Lake which will surely impact the useful life of the Dal Lake.