Citizen Forecasts of the 2008<scp>U</scp>.<scp>S</scp>. Presidential Election

We analyze individual probabilistic predictions of state outcomes in the 2008 U . S . presidential election. Employing an original survey of more than 19,000 respondents, we find that partisans gave higher probabilities to their favored candidates, but this bias was reduced by education, numerical sophistication, and the level of O bama support in their home states. In aggregate, we show that individual biases balance out, and the group's predictions were highly accurate, outperforming both Intrade (a prediction market) and fivethirtyeight.com (a poll‐based forecast). The implication is that electoral forecasters can often do better asking individuals who they think will win rather than who they want to win. Related Articles Dewitt , Jeff R. , and Richard N. Engstrom . 2011 . .” Politics &amp; Policy 39 (): 741 ‐ 759 . http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00311.x/abstract Knuckey , Jonathan. 2011 . “.” Politics &amp; Policy 39 (): 559 ‐ 582 . http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00304.x/abstract Moon , David. 1993 . “.” Southeastern Political Review 21 (): 365 ‐ 388 . http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.1993.tb00368.x/abstract Related Media . 2008 . “.” . http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ . 2008 . “.” http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map Analizamos las predicciones probabilísticas individuales de los resultados estatales para la elección presidencial de los Estados Unidos en 2008. Usando una encuesta original de más de 19,000 participantes, encontramos que los partidistas dieron una mayor probabilidad a su candidato preferido, pero este sesgo se vio reducido por factores como la educación, sofisticación numérica, y el nivel de soporte hacia Obama en sus estados de origen. En conjunto, mostramos que los sesgos individuales se compensan y que las predicciones grupales fueron de gran precisión, superando a Intrade (un mercado de predicciones) y fivethirtyeight.com (un pronóstico basado en encuestas). La implicación es que los pronosticos electorales pueden ser mejorados al preguntar a los individuos quién piensan que ganará en lugar de preguntar quién quieren que gane.