Changes in BMI Before and During Economic Development and Subsequent Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Total Mortality: A 35-Year Follow-up Study in China

OBJECTIVE It is unclear whether changes in BMI during rapid economic development influence subsequent mortality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We analyzed whether BMI in 1976 and 1994 and changes in BMI during 1976–1994 predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in a 35-year follow-up cohort of 1,696 Chinese (1,124 men and 572 women, aged 35–65 years) in Xi'an, China. Participants were categorized as underweight (<18.5 kg/m2), normal weight (18.5–24.9 kg/m2), and overweight (≥25.0 kg/m2). RESULTS During 51,611 person-years of follow-up, we identified 655 deaths from all causes and 234 from CVD. From 1976 to 1994, the prevalence of overweight rose from 9.2 to 27.8%. With each unit increment in 1976 BMI, multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) were 0.78 (0.72–0.84) for CVD and 0.91 (0.87–0.95) for all-cause mortality. In contrast, corresponding HRs were 1.14 (1.08–1.19) and 1.05 (1.01–1.08) in 1994 BMI. The HRs for each unit increment in BMI change from 1976 to 1994 were 1.35 (1.25–1.41) for CVD and 1.09 (1.05–1.13) for all-cause mortality. Compared with participants with stable normal weight in 1976 and 1994, HRs of all-cause mortality for those who had normal weight in 1976 but became overweight in 1994 and for those who were persistently overweight during 1976–1994 were 1.42 (1.12–1.80) and 1.80 (1.04–3.14), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Gaining weight with increased BMI at middle age in Chinese during economic development was associated with elevated risks of all-cause and CVD mortality. Higher BMI measured before economic development was associated with lower mortality risk, whereas BMI measured afterward was associated with increased mortality.